The Commission has identified the natural environment as a major driver of infrastructure demand and supply, reflecting both the need to adapt to the changing climate and to protect and enhance the environment (and the services it provides) from the impact of detrimental human activities. For example flood management systems enable society to cope better with climate variability and change; similarly, waste water collection and treatment infrastructure ensures that discharges are less likely to damage the environment or human health.

Our 2017 paper on the topic explores the relationship between infrastructure, the services provided and the environment, in a discussion framed by the concept of natural capital.

With Britain’s commitment to reach net zero greenhouse gas emission by 2050 enshrined in law, the government must now deliver mass deployment of renewable technologies in order to meet this target, keep consumer bills down and leave open the option of a highly renewable generation mix. Our analysis suggests that deploying renewables faster – so that they provide up to 65 per cent of Britain’s electricity – will not change total system costs in either the short or the long term.

Alongside this, a truly national and visible network of rapid charging points for electric vehicles will be required to enable drivers to make the switch from polluting petrol and diesel vehicles.

Decarbonising heat must also be a priority. In the 2020s, choices will be required on whether the gas network should be maintained and converted or phased out. Between now and any decision on the gas grid, efforts should be ramped up on energy efficiency, hydrogen trials and gathering evidence on technologies such as heat pumps to ensure a smooth, deliverable and safe transition to low carbon heat.

Climate change increases the likelihood of flooding. UK cities, towns and villages must adapt and improve their resilience to its impacts: currently, about five million homes are at risk.

A new long term funding strategy delivering a national standard for resilience to flooding is needed to better prepare and protect all parts of the country.

The National Infrastructure Assessment sets out the case for this nationwide standard of resilience to flooding, with catchment based plans. These plans should evaluate the full range of options including traditional flood defences, ‘green infrastructure’, individual property measures and spatial planning.

Climate change and population growth puts increasing pressure on England’s water: there is a one in four chance of a serious drought before 2050. Boosting resilience, the Commission showed, is almost half as expensive as relying on emergency measures in times of drought (saving up to £20 billion over the next 30 years).

A twin-track approach of managing demand and enhancing supply is needed to deliver by 2050 an extra 4,000 mega litres of water every day to reduce the risk of drought. This can be achieved by the government, regulators and  water companies working together to deliver a national water transfer network and additional supply by the 2030s, halving leakage by 2050 and better managing demand.

The Commission’s Design Group was established in May 2019 following a recommendation in the National Infrastructure Assessment, which highlighted how projects can benefit from good design. Chaired by Professor Sadie Morgan, it brings together leaders from engineering, architecture, transport and landscape, to champion design excellence in infrastructure.

In February 2020 the group published the Design Principles for National Infrastructure [link]. This set out four principles – climate, people, places and value – that should guide the planning and delivery of major projects.

The design of national infrastructure must help set the trajectory for the UK to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner and provide a method for measuring emissions. Projects should support the natural and built environment, making active interventions to enrich ecosystems and seek to deliver a net biodiversity gain.

The Commission recommends that government should set out a nationwide full fibre connectivity plan by spring 2019, including proposals for connecting rural and remote communities. This should ensure that full fibre connectivity is available to 15 million homes and businesses by 2025, 25 million by 2030 with full coverage by 2033. To achieve these targets:

• Ofcom should promote network competition to drive the commercial rollout of full fibre, by deregulating where competition is effective and guaranteeing a fair bet on risky investments before regulating any uncompetitive areas.
• Government should part subsidise rollout to rural and remote communities, beginning by 2020, starting with the hardest to reach areas and community self-build.
• Government and Ofcom should allow for copper switch-off by 2025.
• Government and Ofcom should take action to cut the cost of full fibre deployment including:
  • Government should ensure the processes for obtaining wayleaves and connecting new builds are the same for digital infrastructure as other utilities by 2019.
  • Local government should designate ‘digital champions’ to improve telecoms processes such as street work permissions and access to publicly owned assets.
  • Ofcom should monitor the accessibility of Openreach’s duct and pole infrastructure by levels of usage.

The Commission recommends that government should set out a pipeline of pot 1 Contracts for Difference auctions, to deliver at least 50 per cent renewable generation by 2030, as part of the transition to a highly renewable generation mix. Government should:

• Move technologies that have recently become cost competitive, such as offshore wind, to pot 1 following the next Contracts for Difference auction in Spring 2019. Pot 1 should be used for the overwhelming majority of the increase in renewable capacity required.
• Publish indicative auction dates and budgets for the next decade by 2020.
• Over time take whole systems costs into account in Contracts for Difference auctions, as far as possible.
• Consider whether there is a case for a small-scale, pot 2 auction in the 2020s, if there are technologies which are serious contenders for future pot 1 auctions.
• Not agree support for more than one nuclear power station beyond Hinkley Point C, before 2025.

The Commission recommends that government needs to make progress towards zero carbon heat:

• Establishing the safety case for using hydrogen as a replacement for natural gas, followed by trialling hydrogen at community scale by 2021.
• Subject to the success of community trials, launching a trial to supply hydrogen to at least 10,000 homes by 2023, including hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage.
• By 2021, government should establish an up to date evidence base on the performance of heat pumps within the UK building stock and the scope for future reductions in the cost of installation.
• Set a target for the rate of installations of energy efficiency measures in the building stock of 21,000 measures a week by 2020, maintained at this level until a decision on future heat infrastructure is taken. Policies to deliver this should include:
  • Allocating £3.8 billion between now and 2030 to deliver energy efficiency improvements in social housing.
  • Government continuing to trial innovative approaches for driving energy efficiency within the owner occupier market.
  • Government setting out, by the end of 2018, how regulations in the private rented sector will be tightened and enforced over time.

The Commission recommends that government should set a target for recycling 65 per cent of municipal waste and 75 per cent of plastic packaging by 2030. Government should set individual targets for all local authorities and provide financial support for transitional costs. The government should establish:

• Separate food waste collection for households and businesses (to enable production of biogas) by 2025.
• Clear two symbol labelling (recyclable or not recyclable) across the UK by 2022.
• A consistent national standard of recycling for households and businesses by 2025.
• Restrictions on the use of hard-to-recycle plastic packaging (PVC and polystyrene) by 2025.
• Incentives to reduce packaging and for product design that is more easily recyclable by 2022.
• A common data reporting framework for businesses handling commercial and industrial waste by the end of 2019, ideally through voluntary reporting but if necessary by legislation.

The Commission recommends that government, Ofgem and local authorities should enable the roll out of charging infrastructure sufficient to allow consumer demand to reach close to 100 per cent electric new car and van sales by 2030. Government should address the implications of technological innovation in long term transport planning processes, including the next rail control period and road investment strategy.

• Ofgem should take on the role of regulating the interaction between electric vehicle charge points and the electricity network immediately, ensuring that electric vehicle charging and vehicle to grid services contribute to the optimisation of the energy system. Government, industry and Ofgem should work together to set minimum standards for a network of interoperable, smart charge points.
• Ofgem should commission electricity network operators to work with charge point providers to identify potential anticipatory investments required to accommodate public charging infrastructure. Opportunities for investment within the current price control period should be identified by Summer 2019.
• Government should place a requirement on local authorities to work with charge point providers to allocate 5 per cent of their parking spaces (including on-street) by 2020 and 20 per cent by 2025 which may be converted to electric vehicle charge points.
• Government should subsidise, by 2022, the provision of rapid charge points in rural and remote areas, where the market will not deliver in the short term.
• Government should establish a centre for advanced transport technology in the Department for Transport to bring together work on technological innovation and ensure its implications are central to future investment proposals. This should include developing and overseeing the Commission’s proposed connected and autonomous vehicles framework.

The Commission recommends that government should make £500 million a year of funding available from 2025/26 to 2034/35 for local highways authorities to address the local road maintenance backlog.

The Commission recommends that cities should have the powers and funding they need to pursue ambitious, integrated strategies for transport, employment and housing.

• By 2021, metro mayors and city leaders should develop and implement long term integrated strategies for transport, employment and housing that will support growth in their cities.
• By 2021, government should ensure city leaders have the right powers to deliver these integrated strategies, including the power for metro mayors to make decisions on major housing development sites.
• Government should set out devolved infrastructure budgets for individual cities for locally determined urban transport priorities in line with the funding profile set out by the Commission. Budgets for 2021-2026 should be confirmed by mid 2019. Government should pass legislation, by 2020, requiring cities to be given regular five year infrastructure budgets.
• Government should allocate significant long term funding for major capacity upgrades in selected growth priority cities, in line with the funding profile set out by the Commission. Cities benefiting from major projects should make commitments on housing delivery and provide at least 25 per cent of funding. Priority cities should be identified by mid 2019, with long term investment commitments agreed by 2020. Future rounds should take place no more than twice a parliament.

The Commission recommends that government should set out a strategy to deliver a nationwide standard of resilience to flooding with an annual likelihood of 0.5 per cent by 2050 where this is feasible. A higher standard of 0.1 per cent should be provided for densely populated areas where the costs per household are lower. To deliver the strategy:

• By the end of 2019, government should put in place a rolling 6 year funding programme in line with the funding profile set out by the Commission. This should enable efficient planning and delivery of projects and address the risks from all sources of flooding.
• The Environment Agency should update plans for all catchments and coastal cells in England before the end of 2023. These should identify how risk can be managed most effectively using a combination of measures including green and grey infrastructure, spatial planning and property level measures.
• Water companies and local authorities should work together to publish joint plans to manage surface water flood risk by 2022.
• The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government and planning authorities should ensure that from 2019 all new development is resilient to flooding with an annual likelihood of 0.5 per cent for its lifetime and does not increase risk elsewhere.

The Commission recommends that government should ensure that plans are in place to deliver additional supply and demand reduction of at least 4,000 Ml/day. Action to deliver this twin-track approach should start immediately:

• Ofwat should launch a competitive process by the end of 2019, complementing the Price Review, so that at least 1,300 Ml/day is provided through (i) a national water network and (ii) additional supply infrastructure by the 2030s.
• The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs should set an objective for the water industry to halve leakage by 2050, with Ofwat agreeing 5 year commitments for each company (as part of the regulatory cycle) and reporting on progress.
• The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs should enable companies to implement compulsory metering by the 2030s beyond water stressed areas, by amending regulations before the end of 2019 and requiring all companies to consider systematic roll out of smart meters as a first step in a concerted campaign to improve water efficiency.

The Commission recommends that government should publish good quality data on infrastructure costs and performance. All public bodies taking decisions on strategic economic infrastructure should publish the forecast costs and benefits of their major infrastructure projects at each appraisal stage and at a suitable point after completion, by the end of 2019. The Infrastructure and Projects Authority should work with departments to ensure that costs are comparable between sectors.

The Commission recommends that design should be embedded into the culture of infrastructure planning, to save money, reduce risk, add value, support environmental net gain and create a legacy that looks good and works well, by:

• Government ensuring that all Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects, including those authorised through hybrid parliamentary bills, have a board level design champion and use a design panel to maximise the value provided by the infrastructure.
• Design panels for nationally significant infrastructure projects having regard to design principles to be published by the National Infrastructure Commission based on advice received from the national infrastructure design group.

The Commission recommends that government should deliver long term certainty over infrastructure funding by adopting the funding profile set out in the ‘fiscal remit’ table in Spending Review 2019 and other future spending plans.

The Commission recommends that government should maintain access to the European Investment Bank if possible. If access is lost, a new, operationally independent, UK infrastructure finance institution should be established by 2021. To enable this, government should consult on a proposed design of the new institution by Spring 2019. The consultation should cover:

• Functions, including provision of finance to economic infrastructure projects in cases of market and coordination failures; catalysing innovation; and acting as a centre of excellence on infrastructure project development, procurement and delivery.
• A clear mandate, including sound banking, additionality and having a wider economic and social impact.
• Governance to safeguard the operational independence of the institution.

The Commission recommends that local authorities should be given further powers to capture a fair proportion of increases in the value of land from planning and infrastructure provision. To enable this, government should:

• Remove pooling restrictions on Section 106 in all circumstances, through forthcoming secondary legislation by 2020.
• Remove the ballot requirement for upper tier authorities’ powers to levy a business rate supplement of 2p or less in the pound for infrastructure, except where the supplement exceeds one third of scheme costs by 2021.
• Give local authorities powers to levy zonal precepts on council tax, where public investments in infrastructure drive up surrounding property values by 2021.
• Provide greater certainty in compulsory purchase compensation negotiations by including independent valuations early in the process to be paid for by the acquiring authority by 2021.

Ofwat should launch a competitive process by the end of 2019, complementing the Price Review, so that at least 1,300 Ml/day is provided through (i) a national water network and (ii) additional supply infrastructure by the 2030s.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs should set an objective for the water industry to halve leakage by 2050, with Ofwat agreeing 5 year commitments for each company (as part of the regulatory cycle) and reporting on progress.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs should enable companies to implement compulsory metering beyond water stressed areas by the 2030s, by amending
regulations before the end of 2019 and requiring all companies to consider systematic roll out of smart meters as a first step in a concerted campaign to improve water efficiency.